On June 13, 2024, EZA hosted an online Snack Debate on “European elections 2024 – results and analysis” aiming to provide an analysis of the recent European elections. The event explored in particular the implications for coalition dynamics within the European Parliament (EP), the election of the President of the European Commission, and the future direction of EU social policies. The event was funded by the European Union.
Why This Snack Debate? The EZA Brussels Office is committed to closely monitoring current events within European institutions and swiftly informing its partners and member organizations through bite-sized, informative sessions. This Snack Debate was organized to address the significant political shifts resulting from the elections and their potential impact on the EU's strategic and social agenda.
Keynote Presentation Professor Dr. Steven Van Hecke, a renowned expert in European Politics at KU Leuven and Non-resident Visiting Fellow at the European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS), led the discussion. His presentation, available on the EZA website, provided an in-depth analysis of the election results and the subsequent statements from key political leaders.
Election Outcomes and Analysis Professor Van Hecke began by discussing the provisional composition of the new European Parliament. The center-right European People's Party (EPP) emerged stronger, securing around 184 seats, while far-right groups saw substantial gains, potentially altering the traditional coalition dynamics between the EPP, Socialists and Democrats (S&D), and Renew Europe.
Macro, Meso, and Micro Impacts
Macro Impact: The professor highlighted the pro-Ukraine versus pro-Russia sentiment in the EP, estimating a 75% pro-Ukraine majority. He also noted that despite the changes in the parliamentary composition, no major policy shifts are expected as the strategic pivot from climate change to agriculture, economy, and security had already occurred in Spring 2023.
Meso Impact: Van Hecke emphasized that without transnational lists or treaty changes, the overall political landscape remains stable.
Micro Impact: At the Member State level, varying electoral outcomes were observed. For instance, left-wing parties gained in Nordic countries, while Hungary saw a high turnout but losses for Fidesz. In Romania, a coalition between the EPP and socialists succeeded.
Prospects for the Commission Presidency The discussion also touched on the potential re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission. Professor Van Hecke estimated her chances at 50/50, highlighting the need for broad coalition support in a more fragmented Parliament.
Q&A and Participant Insights The Q&A session allowed participants to delve deeper into the micro-level impacts and generally confirmed the introductory analysis. Participants discussed the rising dissatisfaction in society with perceived insufficient political responses to current challenges.
Key Takeaways The debate concluded with a focus on the importance of social initiatives in the upcoming legislative term. Despite a legislative focus on the economy, defense, and competitiveness, many social issues remain pending. Trade unions and workers' organizations are expected to play a crucial role in advocating for social rights, freedom of association, and the protection of human rights and minorities.
This Snack Debate provided valuable insights into the evolving political landscape in Europe, setting the stage for EZA's continued engagement with critical issues affecting workers and their representation in the EU.